IN-03: Montagano Closing the Gap

Cooper & Secrest for Mike Montagano (9/9-10, likely voters, 4/24,26-27 in parens):

Mike Montagano (D): 37 (28)

Mark Souder (R-inc): 50 (55)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Montagano has been making great progress, cutting Souder’s lead by half since April. This is a deeply Republican district that gave 68% of its vote to Bush in 2004, but Souder has been dramatically under-performing in recent years, including a 54-46 win over physician Tom Hayhurst in 2006 — a performance so pathetic that the NRCC was forced to spend $225K in his defense.

Blue Indiana gives us some more details:

Only 30% of the electorate consider themselves “strong Souder voters.”

Mike Montagano has increased his name ID from 16% to 59%, and of voters who recognize both candidates, Montagano leads Souder by a 47% to 41% margin

Of voters who have seen Montagano’s television advertisements, he leads 47% to 37%.

Montagano leads Souder among Independent voters by an 8-point margin.

Souder’s job performance is still sub-fifty, and 44% have a negative opinion of him as the district’s representation in Congress.

Overall, these are some pretty awful numbers for a GOP incumbent in a district this red. Will it be enough to put Montagano over the top? I’m not sure, but he seems poised to at least give Souder another serious scare.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.